Financial instruments dressed in philosophical clothing
Capital Raised = Vision Grandeur × Market Size × Current AI Hype
In the waning months of 2024 a pattern emerged in the AI industry. I’m not the only one to notice: manifestos are flowing in lock step with capital raises.
OpenAI
Sam Altman issued “The Intelligence Age” on September 23, 2024
The $6B venture financing round led by Thrive was announced on October 2nd, 2024
Anthropic:
Dario Amodei issued “Machines of Loving Grace” on October 11th, 2024
Amazon’s $4B convertible note was announced on November 22nd, 2024
Poolside
They issued their thoughts on AGI in tandem with their $500M venture financing led by BCV on October 2nd, 2024
11x:
They issued their Manifesto and Series B raise of $50M announcement from a16z in tandem on September 30th, 2024
There are more examples but just two points make a line.
I’ve been pondering this trend and what to make of it.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m a techno-optimist. Not as radical in thinking as some other self proclaimed manifesto writers. But one nonetheless.
As someone immersed in AI products and models daily, I know their value.
I probably “talk” to LLMs with more frequency than humans at this point (note to self, this could be concerning). My own thinking processes and output have been amplified by at least 2x.
So its odd to me the need for this new type of pamphleteering.
But my own bias on the edge shrouds objectivity.
I know that most still don’t get it. The “promise of AI” hasn’t yet sunk in. The majority is still not using AI with much frequency.
Or perhaps at all.
Mechanistic manifestos
If you zoom out, there's something poetic about the lockstep between vision and capital.
Each company's manifesto perfectly matches its capital raise like a well tailored suit – the grander the vision, the bigger the check.
It's too perfect to be a coincidence. It's too coordinated to be spontaneous.
The link between vision scope and raise size is mathematical. Want to raise billions? Better be promising to transform human civilization!
Looking for a mere $50 million? An industry sized revolution will suffice.
OpenAI/Anthropic: Societal transformation → Multi-billion raises
Poolside: Technical AGI path → $500M
11x: Industry specific → $50M
Each manifesto also aligns it message with the capital source.
OpenAI: Broad vision → Large institutional capital
Anthropic: Detailed roadmap → Strategic corporate investment
Poolside: Technical depth → Venture capital
11x: Market focus → Growth investors
Artificial General Hyperbole?
Because that’s all that could restrain us (if anything could)—the only thing that could make us want to stay here: the chance to live with those who share our vision. But now? Look how tiring it is—this cacophony we live in. — IX. 9
The real tension isn't whether these companies can deliver on their manifestos. Their potential is clear to us who use it daily.
It's whether this pattern of escalating visions serves the industry's long-term interests.
If most haven't seen AI's potential firsthand, do these grandiose manifestos help, or widen the gap?
It also raises concern that we've created a funding environment where companies must promise transcendent transformation just to get a seat at the table.
In trying to create artificial general intelligence, we risk creating something else: artificial general hyperbole.
One thing is as true as ever: in the 2024 AI industry, your manifesto is your message. Your message is your market. Your market determines your capital.
I hope these companies continue to build the future as well as they write about it.